Outlooks, explorations and normative scenarios: Approaches to global energy futures compared

Scenarios, probability and possible futures

This paper provides an introduction to the mathematical theory of possibility, and examines how this tool can contribute to the analysis of far distant futures. The degree of mathematical possibility of a future is a number between O and 1. It quantifies the extend to which a future event is implausible or surprising, without implying that it has to happen somehow. Intuitively, a degree of poss...

Empirical Approaches to Normative Theory

Empirical methodologies and philosophy are rarely discussed together but this essay is about how simulations and experiments may be useful in the pursuit of philosophical knowledge. It focuses on how these methods can illuminate some fundamental problems in political philosophy viewed as a branch of ethical philosophy. It is widely accepted that the way a social decision is made can affect not ...

Perspectives on global energy futures: simulations with the TIME model

Many uncertainties and controversies surround the future of the global energy system. The Targets IMage Energy (TIME) model of which a concise description is given, is used to explore the consequences of divergent assumptions about some uncertain and controversial issues. The IPCC-IS92a Conventional Wisdom scenario is used as a reference and, in combination with two other scenarios, discussed i...

Sustainable energy futures: Methodological challenges in combining scenarios and participatory multi-criteria analysis

This paper analyses the combined use of scenario building and participatory multi-criteria analysis (PMCA) in the context of renewable energy from a methodological point of view. Scenarios have been applied increasingly in decision-making about long-term consequences by projecting different possible pathways into the future. Scenario analysis accounts for a higher degree of complexity inherent ...

Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions Scenarios: Integrated Modeling Approaches